Where does that leave the Palestinians?<\/em><\/p>\nHere\u2019s where it gets even more complicated. Palestinians do not have citizenship in Israel, the right to vote and freedom of movement. They are under varying degrees of Israeli control.
\nFor about 25 years, the West Bank has been divided into three areas. Area A is fully under Palestinian control \u2014 run by Palestinian institutions, guarded by Palestinian security forces and subject to Palestinian laws. The Israeli army does conduct operations there, but its presence is relatively minimal.<\/p>\n
Area B is mixed: subject to Palestinian civil laws, but under the control of the Israeli army. The vast majority of Palestinians live in Areas A and B.<\/p>\n
Area C is everything else, and it\u2019s fully controlled by the Israeli army. This is where all of the settlers, and a small number of Palestinians, live. It takes up about 60 percent of the West Bank\u2019s total land area.<\/p>\n
The three areas aren\u2019t neatly sliced. They are interspersed with each other in a maze-like tapestry.
\nHow would annexation change things?<\/p>\n
Annexation would make some or all of the settlements officially part of Israel. This is a huge deal.
\nFor 50 years, Israel has been holding the West Bank in a kind of temporary capacity and repeatedly has offered to cede nearly all of it in a peace agreement. This would make the annexed settlements as much a part of Israel \u2014 under Israeli law \u2014 as Tel Aviv. In Israel\u2019s eyes, there would be no difference between the annexed settlements and the rest of the country.<\/p>\n
The international community would likely protest annexation, and strongly, and Palestinians almost surely would. Commanders for Israel\u2019s Security, a group of retired Israeli military officers that supports establishing a Palestinian state, predicts that annexation will lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, which governs the Palestinian areas of the West Bank. The group says annexing all of the settlements will cost Israel $2.35 billion.<\/p>\n
On the ground, little would likely change in the Palestinians\u2019 daily lives \u2014 at least initially.
\nLikewise, if Israel annexes only the settlements, and not the Palestinian areas, it would still leave the Palestinians in the same situation. They would be living in enclaves in the middle of an enlarged Israel, but without Israeli citizenship.<\/p>\n
As for the settlers, they already live under Israeli law, and Israelis have little problem traveling to and from the settlements. If anything, it will make construction in the settlements easier to conduct.<\/p>\n
Why is this coming up now?<\/em><\/p>\nTwo reasons: Israeli elections and Donald Trump.
\nNetanyahu is in a close race for re-election and wants to shore up his base. During the last campaign, in 2015, he did that by saying he would not establish a Palestinian state. The annexation pledge takes him one step further to the right.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a play to draw voters away from smaller parties that are running even further to Netanyahu\u2019s right, like the New Right Party headed by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, two of Netanyahu\u2019s longtime frenemies.<\/p>\n
The annexation promise also comes a few weeks after President Trump recognized Israel\u2019s annexation of the Golan Heights, another controversial (although less so) territory that Israel captured in 1967. Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981, but no U.S. president officially recognized the move.<\/p>\n
Netanyahu saw Trump\u2019s Golan decision as a signal that annexation, in a broader sense, is kosher now.<\/p>\n
\u201cEveryone says you can\u2019t hold an occupied territory, but this proves you can,\u201d Netanyahu told reporters. \u201cIf occupied in a defensive war, then it\u2019s ours.\u201d<\/p>\n
What would this mean for Israeli-Palestinian peace?<\/em><\/p>\nIf you support a Palestinian state, this is bad news. In the past, Israel has offered to withdraw from nearly all of the West Bank in exchange for a peace agreement. But making much of the West Bank part of Israel would foreclose the possibility that it would one day become part of a state of Palestine.<\/p>\n
Dennis Ross, a former U.S. negotiator in Israel, tweeted that after annexation, Palestinians would abandon hope of their own state and start demanding full citizenship and rights in Israel.<\/p>\n
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