In an Israeli political system rife with intrigue, vendettas, ambition and dark conspiracy, the answer to<\/p>\n
I agree with the Israeli pundits who argue<\/a> that only Netanyahu and Avigdor Liberman know for sure.<\/p>\n Yes, the draft conscription bill, which would require haredi Orthodox men to participate in Israel\u2019s mandatory military draft and which angers Netanyahu\u2019s haredi Orthodox coalition partners, created an impasse. And yes Liberman, who heads the Yisrael Beiteinu party, was generally dissatisfied with Netanyahu\u2019s approach to security, advocating for a tougher approach to Gaza.<\/p>\n But divides over these issues aren\u2019t new. And what happened Wednesday was.<\/p>\n Netanyahu is only the third Israeli prime minister who, tasked by the nation\u2019s president to form a government, was unable to do so. The 21st Knesset, whose members will serve just 161 days before the Sept. 17 elections, will be the shortest parliament term in Israeli history.<\/p>\n Explaining this unique set of developments lies not in traditional policy divides but in a perfect storm of factors unique to the current situation:<\/p>\n To have any chance of protecting himself and secure his political future, Netanyahu needed to form not just any government, but a certain kind of government: a coalition filled with politicians who would help him avoid indictment<\/a> while in office with three corruption scandals hanging over his head.<\/p>\n That ruled out partnering with Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid\u2019s Blue and White party<\/a>, which campaigned on a promise to remove that very corruption.<\/p>\n So we\u2019re left with a wild situation in which Liberman, with five key mandates, a longstanding vendetta against Netanyahu and his eyes on the prize of prime minister post-Netanyahu, is seeking to become a kingmaker, to the amazement of anyone watching this drama play out.<\/p>\n Netanyahu will indeed surpass David Ben-Gurion in July as the longest-governing prime minister in Israel\u2019s history. But his fall has been breathtaking, and his future is stunningly uncertain. He now joins the undistinguished club of Shimon Peres and Tzipi Livni as previous prime ministers who failed to form a government. Indeed, Netanyahu is now in his own club of one: a prime minister who almost singlehandedly dissolved the Knesset.<\/p>\n This was Shakespeare or the Marx Brothers at their very best. The takeaway here is clear: If you thought the aftermath of the April 9 elections looked like \u201cGame of Thrones,\u201d just wait until the afterglow of Sept. 17.<\/b><\/p>\n Netanyahu has been weakened \u2026 but can he hang on?<\/strong><\/p>\n I\u2019ve asked this question several times<\/a> over the past year and a half, in the wake of Netanyahu\u2019s indictment and, briefly, on election night in April.<\/p>\n Most of Israel\u2019s chattering classes seem to think the answer is absolutely yes. Haaretz correspondent Chemi Shalev even penned<\/a> a piece suggesting that it\u2019s even possible now to fantasize \u2013 however briefly \u2013 what Israel would look like post Netanyahu.<\/p>\n There\u2019s no doubt that Netanyahu has been severely weakened. Even if he manages to win in September, the argument goes, he\u2019ll be undermined by indictments from which he won\u2019t be immunized. <\/p>\n Whether this is wishful thinking on the part of Netanyahu\u2019s enemies or solid analysis is impossible to say for now. But as history has taught us, it would be unwise to underestimate Netanyahu, who still retains significant political assets.<\/p>\n Despite not being able to form a coalition on the first try, Netanyahu likely still has the best chance of forming a government next time around, assuming the election results mirror those of April.<\/p>\n And Netanyahu continues to have considerable support from a public \u2013 including the youngest voters<\/a> \u2013 that admires what he\u2019s done for Israel and cannot imagine what Israel would be like without him. The central question is whether sufficient numbers of swing voters are tired of Netanyahu\u2019s long tenure and disillusioned, if not angry, over his self-absorbed politics and machinations.<\/b><\/p>\n What about the Kushner plan?<\/strong><\/p>\n The first time I met Jared Kushner, I quipped that I wish my father-in-law had as much confidence in me as his has in him because President Donald Trump has given his son-in-law and senior adviser mission impossible.<\/p>\n New Israeli elections have introduced even more uncertainty into an already fraught U.S. initiative.<\/p>\n There is no \u201cDeal of the Century\u201d now that will produce a conflict-ending solution to the Israeli-Palestinian struggle. But that doesn\u2019t mean the Kushner team won\u2019t try.<\/p>\n An investor workshop planned for Bahrain designed to entice Palestinians, and lay out (what I\u2019m told are) highly detailed infrastructure plans for the region, will be touted as proof of life for the Kushner plan. The hype and hoopla of Israelis and Arabs meeting \u2013 maybe even with a few Palestinians in tow \u2013 will be touted to give Netanyahu a pre-election lift. <\/p>\n But it\u2019s hard to see any advantage of releasing the political part of the Kushner plan before Israeli elections, particularly if it contains elements that would be tough for Netanyahu to accept. And why waste your one shot at a deal (whose odds are pretty bad to begin with) on a government that might change \u2013 either with or without Netanyahu?<\/p>\n One thing is certain: If you thought Trump was campaigning<\/a> hard for Netanyahu in the run-up to the April elections, you haven\u2019t seen anything yet.<\/p>\n It\u2019s hot in Israel in August. But I can see a Trump \u201clet\u2019s re-elect Bibi\u201d visit to Israel in Netanyahu\u2019s future.<\/b><\/p>\n Predictions, anyone?<\/strong><\/p>\n Not from me \u2013 there simply are too many variables right now.<\/p>\n Who will the Israeli voters punish for going to elections so soon and wasting at least $190 million<\/a> in taxpayer dollars? Will Gantz and Lapid run a better campaign this time? Will the Netanyahu-Liberman feud push the latter out of a possible Netanyahu government? Will some security challenge in Gaza, Syria or between the U.S. and Iran play to Netanyahu\u2019s advantage?<\/p>\n In Middle East time, 110 days is an eternity.<\/p>\n So buckle up: I guarantee you it\u2019s going to be one hot combustible summer. <\/p>\n![\"Share](\"https:\/\/static.hupso.com\/share\/buttons\/share-medium.png\")