\n<\/span><\/p>\n
“Rest assured that from today to the November 2020 Election day, Iran will \u201cChinese water torture\u201d bleed President Trump to death with attacks on Saudi Arabia.
\n<\/span>say: On Iran and North Korea, Trump’s views were very much weaker than Bolton\u2019s.”<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\nIt is no accident that Iran destroyed Saudi Arabia\u2019s ARAMCO\u2019s Eastern provinces oil refineries the very week Bolton was fired. In fact, Bolton\u2019s firing is the spark that ensured that Iran will now set Saudi Arabia on fire. While Bolton was still there, Iran saw that its Houthi proxies had unlimited attacks on Saudi Arabia. Iran, itself, had destroyed several tankers in the Persian Gulf, Iran had openly pirated a British tanker, and downed an American 280 million dollar drone with no American push-back. In fact, there was no American military reaction whatsoever. <\/p>\n
Hence, if Trump was paralyzed in reacting to Iran with Bolton, then without Bolton, Iran has calculated that it can do whatever it desires against Saudi Arabia short of killing an American soldier. Iran\u2019s attack on Saudi Arabia is just the opening salvo in what will be a string of Iranian attritional attacks against America\u2019s allies right up to the November 2020 US election.<\/p>\n
Rest assured that from today to the November 2020 Election day, Iran will bleed President Trump with attacks on Saudi Arabia. Why? First and foremost, Bolton is gone. Second, Iranian drones or cruise missiles are totally deniable and can be fired from Iran\u2019s proxies in Iraq. Such attacks will leave no Iranian finger prints, and can\u2019t be \u201cabsolutely\u201d pinned on the Iranians, i.e. \u201cThe Houthis did it\u201d even though the Yemeni Houthis are 600 miles away. Third, anti-war Democrats and Republicans will use the smallest element of Iranian deniability to put Trump into a policy box that he doesn\u2019t have \u201cdefinitive proof\u201d that the Iranians were actually involved and \u201cresponsible. \u201d They will use \u201cthe Saudis started it by killing the Houthis in Yemen anyway” tagline. Fourth, the Iranian attritive attacks will make Trump look like a weak loser and help ensure Trump actually loses the election. <\/p>\n
Going into 2020, a paralyzed President Trump idly watching an Iranian war of attrition will expose him to eviscerating Democrat attacks on his foreign policy, and his very Tough-Guy\/Always-Win persona. With Trump clearly paralyzed and distracted with Iran in the Gulf, China and North Korea will smell blood and wait out any moves on Chinese Trade or North Korea\u2019s nuclear file.<\/p>\n
And imagine what America\u2019s \u201cmutual defense\u201d treaty would be worth to Israel, if the anti-Iran President Trump is impotent protecting Saudi Arabia from Iran.<\/p>\n
Fourth, what are Trump\u2019s options? One either goes super big pre-emptive, or doesn\u2019t go at all. If Trump attacks Iran, he needs to follow the Red Adair approach of fighting an oil rig fire: blowing it up to start with so that the smaller rig fire is starved for air, and goes out. In other words, to fight an Iranian \u201cfire\u201d you don\u2019t bring \u201cwater\u201d or \u201cfire,\u201d you bring \u201chigh explosives.\u201d You don\u2019t do \u201cproportional,\u201d you do preemptively \u201cdisproportional\u201d and overwhelming and hit both civilian and military targets so Iran has little left with which to counter-attack.<\/p>\n
Critically and unfortunately, US CENTCOM has placed its regional headquarters in Al Udeid Air base in Qatar. This means US CENTCOM HQ is on the very extreme front lines of the any Iran conflagration. Iran isn\u2019t kidding when they say that American bases are in the range of their attack. Before any action, Al Udeid CENTCOM HQ needs to be immediately abandoned, and relocated so it is heavily protected.<\/p>\n
If Trump is not going to go super big, he needs to just weather the storm until Iran makes a really fatal mistake. This will drive the Saudis to hysteria and desperation, sink their ARAMCO IPO, and put any Israel-Palestinian deal in the ice-box. It also has a policy plus in that it shows the American public up to the election how Trump\u2019s energy-independence strategy is a huge strategic winner, and how the Democrat\u2019s Green New \u201cno-fossil fuel\u201d deal is a catastrophic loser. It also shows President Trump as a \u201cpresident keeping America out of Middle East wars.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, what President Trump can\u2019t do is ensure a proportional medium, middle-of-the-road war. Such a \u201cmiddle war\u201d approach loses both the war and the 2020 election. And if Trump loses the 2020 election during a \u201cmiddle-of-the\u2013road-war\u201d, any Presidential Democrat will immediately concede defeat to Iran no matter what, and reinstate the Iran deal. Therefore, Iran will \u201cwin\u201d in the end of a proportional tit-for-tat war. Iran needs to decisively lose on Trump\u2019s watch, and if that is not the goal, Trump shouldn\u2019t fire a single bullet.<\/p>\n
In conclusion, President Trump\u2019s firing of John Bolton may have tactically felt good to President Trump at that specific moment. But, strategically, America\u2019s mortal enemies see Bolton\u2019s departure as ensuring President Trump is now unable to take any meaningful military or harsh action in North Korea, or Iran. <\/p>\n
Without \u201cBad Cop\/Prep for War\u201d Bolton, President Trump may have turned himself into a hapless, lame duck president, incapable of acting decisively in the face of a war consisting of a constant barrage of Iranian \u201cdeniable\u201d attacks.<\/p>\n
(Mark Langfan is chairman of Americans for a Safe Israel (AFSI) and specializes in security issues, He has created an original educational 3D Topographic Map System of Israel to facilitate clear understanding of the dangers facing Israel and its water supply. It can be seen at www.marklangfan.com.)<\/em><\/p>\n
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