<\/ins><\/ins><\/ins><\/p>\nGiven these differing approaches, what would a Trump or Biden win mean for U.S. policy vis-\u00e0-vis Tehran?<\/p>\n
A Trump win would mean \u201ccontinuing to strangle Iran economically while rolling back its forces throughout the Middle East,\u201d Richard Goldberg, the former director for countering Iran\u2019s weapons of mass destruction at the White House National Security Council, told JNS.<\/p>\n
Middle East analyst and human-rights lawyer Irina Tsukerman echoed Goldberg, saying that the Trump administration \u201cwould likely have more freedom to put additional pressure on Iran and even perhaps back some additional disruptive measures, such as arrests of ships with arms going to Yemen or stopping gold for oil ships en route to Venezuela.\u201d<\/p>\n
United Against Nuclear Iran policy director Jason Brodsky told JNS that \u201cit will be important for any incoming administration to recognize that the United States has amassed significant economic leverage over Iran. Whoever wins the presidency must use that leverage wisely. Rushing back into the existing JCPOA, which has already started to expire, would be a mistake.\u201d<\/p>\n
He cited that \u201cthere are significant obstacles to reviving the JCPOA\u2014Iran\u2019s demand for a return to the pre-2017 sanctions landscape and compensation are only two examples. Those will be nonstarters on both sides of the political aisle, as that could potentially mean Tehran demanding a relaxation of the terrorism-related sanctions which have been levied on the Islamic Republic since 2017.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brodsky called for whoever wins the election to \u201cmake an attempt to forge a bipartisan consensus on Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are significant voices in the Democratic Party that opposed the initial agreement with Tehran,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s not only about appeasing U.S. allies, but it\u2019s also about doing the political legwork in Washington. One of the many flaws of the JCPOA was that lack of bipartisan buy-in.\u201d<\/p>\n
Brodsky also noted that \u201cIran is having its own presidential election in June 2021. Some argue that the United States should quickly revive the JCPOA to boost the political fortunes of the pragmatists in Tehran. But that\u2019s a fundamental misreading of Iranian politics.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe decision over negotiations with the United States will ultimately come from the supreme leader, not the president, and will be shaped by the Supreme National Security Council,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u2018Trump better at undermining agreements than creating new ones\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\nFor either candidate, returning to talk with Iran will prove difficult.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no easy path to diplomatic progress with Iran, no matter who wins the U.S. presidential election,\u201d Barbara Slavin, who leads the Atlantic Council\u2019s Future Iran Initiative, told JNS. \u201cBut the road is far clearer and smoother with a Biden win.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe history of the past three-and-a-half years shows that Trump is better at undermining previous agreements than creating new ones,\u201d she said. \u201cWhile Iran has been suffering economically due to U.S. sanctions, it has also become more self-reliant and boosted trade with China and its neighbors, especially Iraq.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIran would certainly welcome sanctions relief from the U.S., but building on the deal will require more U.S. concessions, including on primary sanctions, and buy-in from Arab foes of Iran that have enjoyed the Trump administration\u2019s harsh policies,\u201d continued Slavin. \u201cEven if it\u2019s Biden, this won\u2019t be an easy lift.\u201d<\/p>\n
Ilan Goldenberg, who worked on the Iran portfolio in the Obama administration, told JNS, \u201cThere might be an opportunity for diplomacy, no matter who wins.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI think it will probably be clear if Biden wins,\u201d he continued. \u201cTrump has expressed an interest in going back to negotiations and getting some kind of a deal with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said that such an agreement would resemble the JCPOA, but he wouldn\u2019t want to call it that. \u201cHe would want to call it Donald Trump\u2019s bigger and better deal or whatever. But I think its core components would still be [about Iran\u2019s] nuclear [program].\u201d<\/p>\n
However, Goldenberg acknowledged that U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other Trump administration officials would not be supportive of such a deal. The Trump administration has, in fact, laid out a 12-point plan<\/a> for Iran to rejoin the international community in order for it to \u201cbehave like a normal nation,\u201d according to Pompeo.<\/p>\nStill, a Biden administration could get back into the JCPOA before the Iranian elections and then \u201chold off any sort of further, more complicated, negotiations until after,\u201d speculated Goldenberg.<\/p>\n
In order for there to be a deal with Iran that addresses the regime\u2019s regional ambitions, he said, \u201cyou would need a first-step nuclear arrangement to be able to get to the issues.\u201d<\/p>\n
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