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<\/a><\/p>\nFormer U.S. Rep. Cori Bush prepares to deliver her concession speech on August 6, 2024, in St Louis. (Michael B. Thomas\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
That\u2019s four times greater than the margin two years ago. In that first face-off Bell topped Bush, then the district\u2019s representative, by just 5.5 percentage points. The pro-Israel Bell\u2019s overwhelming success Tuesday was especially striking due to negative shifts in public perceptions of AIPAC and the Jewish state, which also made for the biggest policy differences between two candidates with similar platforms.<\/p>\n
Multiple factors determine the outcomes of political contests, which are always subject to geographic influences, personalities and various other complexities. But pro-Israel advocates who saw the Bell-Bush rematch as a referendum on AIPAC were relieved the lobby got passing marks on Tuesday. <\/p>\n
That success indicates that views on Israel even in deep-blue communities are not monolithic or always decisive, and shows the limits of a campaign run almost exclusively on this topic. Demography and the economy ultimately mattered more in St. Louis than a conflict thousands of miles away, according to political analysts.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe sentiment of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and AIPAC money \u2014 while it was a central campaign theme of Cori Bush, it wasn\u2019t the top of mind issue for voters in the district,\u201d Braxton Payne, a St. Louis-based Democratic strategist unaffiliated with either campaign, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. <\/p>\n
During Bell\u2019s first contest with Bush, before he had a proven track record on Capitol Hill, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee spent $9 million to support his campaign (compared to $3 million this year), according to Federal Election Commission records. The vast majority of the sum targeted Bush, who has repeatedly accused Israel of genocide in Gaza.<\/p>\n
When she lost that race two years ago, Bush promised revenge, threatening to tear down AIPAC\u2019s \u201ckingdom.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI do believe that AIPAC and that money was Cori Bush\u2019s whole campaign,\u201d Payne said. \u201cShe focused on that and personal grievances versus talking about the issues. And Wesley Bell stuck to the cost of living and Cori Bush\u2019s record in Congress.\u201d <\/p>\n
Bell reiterated the importance of domestic issues in a statement published following his victory, noting that \u201cSt. Louis is up against a president that is coming after our healthcare, our due process, and the paychecks of working families.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bush, in contrast, said in her concession speech that she\u2019s \u201cnot just coming for AIPAC,\u201d but also for \u201cthe billionaires, the corporations, that think they\u2019re people.\u201d<\/p>\n
On paper, Bell and Bush are quite similar. Born in Missouri in the mid-1970s, they are both Black progressive Democrats who entered politics after the 2014 police shooting of Michael Brown in the city of Ferguson. Bush served two consecutive terms in Congress, until she lost her seat to Bell in 2024.<\/p>\n
Their political platforms also shared many positions on immigration, reproductive choice and healthcare. But they diverged when it came to the Middle East, with Bush\u2019s campaign pledging to \u201cstand for justice in Palestine\u201d and Bell known for his pro-Israel stance. <\/p>\n
In response to Bush\u2019s defeat, the pro-Israel lobby posted on X that Bush has long \u201cdemonized AIPAC\u2019s members, attacked Israel and refused to condemn Hamas terrorism \u2014 and voters made sure she did not make it back to Congress.\u201d <\/p>\n
For his part, Bell mentioned neither Israel nor AIPAC in his victory speech and referred to Jewish constituents only while rattling off a diverse list of St. Louis\u2019s many cultures. Instead, he highlighted local concerns like gun violence and economic struggles. <\/p>\n
Of those many cultures, the Black community is one of the city\u2019s largest. Payne pointed out that in most Democratic primaries to date that have involved Democratic Socialists of America candidates, including Bush, Black voters have opted for the more moderate opponent. <\/p>\n
\u201cOlder Black voters tend to be more religious in general,\u201d he said. \u201cThey\u2019re more of what we would generally consider establishment Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n
He described Black women in particular as \u201cthe core of the Democratic Party,\u201d noting that \u201cthey tend to be more moderate, and so these DSA candidates don\u2019t typically earn their support.\u201d<\/p>\n
Theodore Johnson, a scholar of Black electoral politics, discussed this tendency in a Washington Post column on Wednesday and noted that the direction this population sways in primaries often depends on geography as much as on platform. <\/p>\n
\u201cTo the degree that democratic socialists appeal to Black voters, it is a function of regional politics and culture, dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, the chance to elect Black legislators at a time when many are exiting Congress, candidate charisma and character, and viability in the general election,\u201d Johnson stated. <\/p>\n
Bell, for his part, earned the backing of the Congressional Black Caucus, whose political action committee declared that \u201cthe St. Louis area is sending a fighter back to Washington.\u201d And the congressman enjoyed across-the-board endorsements from the Democratic establishment, including from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, fellow Missouri Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, California Rep. Peter Aguilar and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. <\/p>\n
Bell also \u201cran a good campaign,\u201d according to Payne, citing his prioritization of local concerns like affordability and Bush\u2019s performance in Congress. <\/p>\n
In one of her campaign ads, Bush claimed that Bell, \u201cdoesn\u2019t know how to fight for us.\u201d<\/p>\n
During her two terms in Congress, however, Bush missed more than 240 roll call votes, equivalent to nearly 11% of votes she could have placed, according to the GovTrack database. The median missed votes for Congress members at the time was 2.2%. Bell has missed 18 votes, or 2.8% of those he could have placed, the records showed.<\/p>\n
Pro-Israel advocates saw an additional factor in Bell\u2019s success.<\/p>\n
Haile Soifer, CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based Jewish Democratic Council of America, which endorsed Bell, described his win in a statement as a \u201cresounding 22-point victory.\u201d She praised the hard work of volunteers who made thousands of phone calls and mobilized networks of voters to secure the win for Bell. <\/p>\n
\u201cThis work continues, as we engage voters in key districts and states in support of Democrats who share our values in the lead-up to the critically important midterms in November,\u201d Soifer added. <\/p>\n