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<\/a><\/p>\nPeople gather in front of the Brandenburg Gate to protest against the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) the day after the party won in Saxony-Anhalt state elections, Berlin, Germany, Sept. 7, 2026. (Sean Gallup\/Getty Images)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
The first test for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party comes Sunday in municipal elections in the western state of Lower Saxony. A week later, the AfD has its sights on state elections in the capital, Berlin, and the Baltic coast state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.<\/p>\n
The AfD beat out other parties in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6 with 43.8% of the vote and 39 of 83 state parliament seats, falling just short of a majority and marking Germany\u2019s greatest far-right victory in a state election since World War II.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom previous elections, we know that the AfD is currently able to mobilize almost totally its own constituency and potential voters, while its democratic competitors have much more problems,\u201d said Gideon Botsch, the head of the Emil Julius Gumbel Research Unit on Antisemitism and Right-Wing Extremism at Potsdam University.<\/p>\n
While polls do not predict the next state election results will match the historic win in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD currently leads other parties in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania with about 35% of the vote. And in Berlin, long a stronghold of Germany\u2019s political left, the AfD is jockeying with the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the left-wing Linke for first place, with all three polling around 20%.<\/p>\n
The AfD, a nationalist, anti-immigrant party whose leaders have proposed rejecting Germany\u2019s \u201cguilt complex\u201d over the Holocaust, has regularly topped nationwide opinion polls for the past year. In surveys asking Germans which party they would choose if federal elections were held \u201cthis Sunday,\u201d the AfD often receives the highest results, Botsch told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency.<\/p>\n
The AfD has built a dedicated and growing base, said Botsch. Its popularity signals frustration with the mainstream parties in power, particularly the CDU, Chancellor Friedrich Merz\u2019s party, amid a sluggish economy. The AfD is especially popular in eastern Germany, where voters are poorer and hit hard by high energy prices exacerbated by the wars in Iran and Ukraine. <\/p>\n
The AfD is likely to perform more weakly in the west, where Lower Saxony will hold a municipal election on Sunday. The party has stronger influence in the east, and Germany\u2019s municipal elections tend to hinge more on well-known figures from established parties, said Roger St\u00f6cker, a political scientist at Otto von Guericke University in Magdeburg. Still, even if the AfD doesn\u2019t transform governments, St\u00f6cker said that making inroads to further entrench itself in Lower Saxony would be \u201ca strategically significant success.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s conceivable that the AfD wins a town hall or a county administration here and there or strengthens its presence in local councils, expanding its local base,\u201d said St\u00f6cker.<\/p>\n
The three upcoming elections are being closely watched for signs of the AfD\u2019s wider-scale momentum, said Daniel Schuster, who heads the Simon Wiesenthal Center\u2019s European office. <\/p>\n
\u201cTaken together, these elections can help show whether Saxony-Anhalt was an exceptionally strong eastern result or part of a broader national expansion of the AfD\u2019s electoral base,\u201d said Schuster.<\/p>\n
Remko Leemhuis, the director of the American Jewish Committee Berlin Lawrence and Lee Ramer Institute for German-Jewish Relations, added that residents will feel the effects of the AfD\u2019s success even if it falls short of its victory in Saxony-Anhalt. A \u201cvery strong AfD result,\u201d short of managing to enter government coalitions, would still \u201craise serious concerns\u201d for Jewish residents about the party\u2019s influence, said Leemhuis.<\/p>\n