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<\/a><\/p>\nA road sign stands in front of a large billboard featuring Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) of the Likud party and former military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, Gadi Eisenkot. (Photo by Jack GUEZ \/ AFP)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
That assessment comes despite polls released last week showing that neither candidate has a clear path to a governing coalition with a 61-seat majority.<\/p>\n
Most polls predict what has been dubbed the \u201cchange bloc\u201d led by Eisenkot at 52 to 56 seats, while Netanyahu\u2019s coalition is polling at around 50 seats.<\/p>\n
Kalshi traders, however, give Eisenkot a 52% chance of becoming Israel\u2019s next prime minister, followed by Netanyahu at 28% and the former prime minister Naftali Bennett at 10%. On Polymarket, Eisenkot\u2019s chances stand at 58% and Netanyahu\u2019s at 27%, with no other candidate above 15%.<\/p>\n
Moran Ofir, a professor at the University of Haifa\u2019s Faculty of Law who has researched prediction markets, explained the discrepancy, telling the Jewish Telegraphic Agency that there are two fundamental differences between polling and prediction markets. <\/p>\n
Polls measure which party voters intend to support, while prediction markets ask a different question: Who will become prime minister?<\/p>\n
Secondly, she said that the methodologies are fundamentally different. While polls rely on samples designed to be representative of the electorate, Polymarket reflects only those who choose to put their money on an election outcome.<\/p>\n
Also, Polymarket\u2019s percentages represent implied probabilities of winning, rather than shares of voter support.<\/p>\n
At first glance, Ofir said, the fact that Polymarket participants have to put money behind their bets should protect the platform against deliberate misrepresentation, to which polls can be vulnerable.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe promise of these platforms, like Polymarket, Kalshi or PredictIt, is to aggregate the wisdom of the crowd faithfully,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
But that vision is far from the reality on the ground.<\/p>\n
In a study conducted by Ofir, Joshua Mitts, a professor of law at Columbia Law School, and Dan Zimmermann, chief intelligence officer at Betting Intelligence (BETINT), the researchers analyzed 1.2 million transactions. They found that 18% of all the money backing Netanyahu on Polymarket was concentrated in a single account, while just seven accounts held 29% of the money bet against him.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we see in our research is that the Israeli election market on Polymarket is not a market driven by the wisdom of the crowd, but one dominated by a very small number of relatively large players putting up very large sums of money,\u201d Ofir said.<\/p>\n
She described the election betting market as \u201cfragile and highly susceptible to manipulation,\u201d adding that participants may not be acting to maximize profits, but rather to influence public opinion ahead of the election.<\/p>\n
\u201cPerhaps Polymarket was, for years, a platform that reflected the wisdom of the crowd. But powerful actors with vested interests identified it, and today, in the world of elections, it has become a platform where large and powerful players step in to shape public perception,\u201d Ofir said.<\/p>\n
Another example identified in the study took place last summer. Two accounts placed bets on Ofer Winter, the leader of the Amcha Yisrael party, which was hovering around 3.25%, Israel\u2019s electoral threshold to qualify for seats in the Knesset. The researchers identified two newly created betting accounts that wagered $3,200 on Winter becoming prime minister. The bets briefly pushed him above Avigdor Lieberman, an established Israeli political figure who heads the Yisrael Beytenu party, in the market\u2019s ranking of candidates\u2019 chances of becoming prime minister.<\/p>\n
\u201cTwo days after the party\u2019s launch: Ofer Winter overtakes Lieberman,\u201d a major Israeli newspaper declared just hours later. Ofir suspects the bets were intended to create a misleading impression that would help persuade Winter\u2019s supporters that his party could clear the electoral threshold.<\/p>\n
Ofir said the researchers interpreted betting patterns by the account that placed large wagers on Netanyahu as evidence of possible access to nonpublic information. Other accounts that wagered substantial sums showed similar patterns related to the war with Iran, she said.<\/p>\n
Brazil and Serbia held elections over the weekend. On Polymarket, Serbian President Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 had a 72% chance of winning. In Brazil, incumbent President Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva had just a 17% chance of victory.<\/p>\n
Vu\u010di\u0107 lost. Lula won.<\/p>\n