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<\/a><\/p>\nSupporters watch the exit poll results following the closing of polling stations at the Likud party\u2019s election headquarters in Jerusalem, on Israel\u2019s general election night, October 27, 2026. (Chaim Goldberg\/Flash90)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
According to the vote count so far, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s Likud party could have as many as 28 seats, yet his bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties will fall short of the 61 seats needed to form a majority government.<\/p>\n
Yashar, the party led by Netanyahu\u2019s main rival, former Israeli army chief Gadi Eisenkot, looks set to be the second-largest party, with around 22 seats. The so-called \u201cchange\u201d bloc that Eisenkot leads will likely have around 47 seats, also far short of what is needed to form a government on its own.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Israel\u2019s Arab parties, which both blocs have said they wouldn\u2019t include in a coalition, are on pace to get at least 17 seats collectively and could become key to helping the opposition oust Netanyahu.<\/p>\n
The formal process whereby each party holds consultations with Israel\u2019s President Isaac Herzog to recommend a candidate for prime minister will likely begin next week. Political analysts are already speculating on possible scenarios.<\/p>\n
Their tentative takeaway: Reality may force political leaders to break their solemn promises to not work with certain other parties.<\/p>\n
So what are the possible scenarios if the final results leave the political arena so starkly divided? Here are the three most likely outcomes.<\/p>\n
1. The \u201cchange\u201d bloc plus the Arab parties<\/strong><\/p>\n All the parties in the change bloc bar the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, stated throughout their campaigns that they would not form a government with either of the Arab parties, even though Mansour Abbas, the leader of Ra\u2019am, an Islamist faction, joined a centrist coalition from 2021-2022, breaking what had once been a taboo. Abbas is again offering to join forces with the change bloc.<\/p>\n \u201cClearly this is emerging as an option mathematically and politically,\u201d Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency on Wednesday. But he added, \u201cIt\u2019s obviously not only a violation of campaign promises, but I think the Israeli public opinion is deeply unprepared for such an option.\u201d Tolerance for working with an Islamist party has diminished since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led raids.<\/p>\n Another variation on this option is for the change bloc \u2014 Eisenkot\u2019s Yashar party, B\u2019Yachad, led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman\u2019s Yisrael Beiteinu party, as well as the Democrats \u2014 to form a minority government.<\/p>\n While 61 seats are needed to form a majority government, there is nothing to prevent a government with fewer than 61 seats from being formed if it can gain support on key legislative decisions.<\/p>\n This could happen if Arab factions support the change bloc on key votes but otherwise don\u2019t play a role in the government. This would give the change bloc up to 65 seats when Arab parties\u2019 support from the sidelines is added in. <\/p>\n Even this step has been rejected by Lieberman, yet Professor Jonathan Rynhold, of the Department of Political Studies at Bar-Ilan University, said it was possible that Eisenkot could put pressure on him to accept. <\/p>\n \u201cEven though Lieberman has said no to such an option, he might say yes if he\u2019s the prime minister,\u201d Rynhold said. <\/p>\n On the other hand, the Arab parties, especially the Joint List, might demand concessions for such an agreement that Eisenkot himself finds hard to stomach.<\/p>\n 2. Formation of a unity government<\/strong><\/p>\n A quick look at the political map following Tuesday\u2019s vote shows that center-right parties ranging from Eisenkot\u2019s Yashar party to Lieberman\u2019s Yisrael Beiteinu, with Likud and B\u2019Yachad in between, gained a substantial share of the seats. One possible scenario is that some of these parties, even though they are avowed political foes, could join forces.<\/p>\n \u201cI think it is perhaps more likely that there will be serious negotiations around a unity government,\u201d Plesner said. \u201cI would imagine that Netanyahu would prefer unity based on him forming a coalition with all of his bloc members, and then luring one of the \u2018change bloc\u2019 parties to his government.\u201d That would mean including ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism and far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.<\/p>\n However, Plesner said the change bloc parties would most likely push for a \u201creal unity government,\u201d whereby Netanyahu \u201cgives up on one of the far-right parties that has caused a lot of challenges for Israel\u2019s international image, or perhaps an ultra-Orthodox party that has refused to pass a military draft bill.\u201d He was referring to a law that would force more haredi men to serve in the military, from which they\u2019ve traditionally been exempted. This, he said, would create a \u201cZionist, more centrist-leaning option.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI think this is something that Israeli public opinion would be able to live with and perhaps even prefer, but I can\u2019t say anything about the political viability of it,\u201d Plesner said. <\/p>\n The change bloc ran on replacing Netanyahu, and no doubt many of its voters would feel betrayed by such an outcome.<\/p>\n 3. Another round of elections<\/strong><\/p>\n In his election night speech, Eisenkot declared that \u201cafter an election with such high voter turnout, it would be a mistake to hold another election.\u201d Some 77.7% of voters cast ballots, the highest since 1999, according to election officials.<\/p>\n However, with no bloc reaching a majority and serious ideological disagreements among the parties, another round of elections might be the most likely possibility. For Netanyahu in particular, allowing the process to play out while he retains his position as interim prime minister until another election is held could well be the most favorable outcome for the long-serving leader, according to Plesner.<\/p>\n A similar scenario played out beginning in 2019, when Netanyahu\u2019s bloc of supporters failed to achieve a majority. Israel then held a series of elections, culminating in the March 2021 vote, when Netanyahu\u2019s bloc was ousted by a center-left alliance led by Bennett and Lapid. The November 2022 election returned Netanyahu to power.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t really know what the path forward is now,\u201d said Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we were talking 10 years ago, I would say that something else might happen \u2013 a unity government or a different solution perhaps,\u201d he said. But given the entrenched political camps at this point, another round of elections might be where the country is headed. <\/p>\n On the other hand, given the unpredictable nature of Israel\u2019s political scene, Plesner noted that it could be a \u201ctime for politicians to get creative.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI wouldn\u2019t be surprised if all sorts of ideas that we haven\u2019t thought of before come up in the upcoming few weeks,\u201d he said, adding that he believed that, with so much uncertainty, it could \u201ctake weeks and perhaps months\u201d before the next prime minister is determined.<\/p>\n