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<\/a><\/p>\nYashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot at the party\u2019s election headquarters in Tel Aviv following Israel’s election, on Oct. 28, 2026. (Avshalom Sassoni\/Flash90)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Eisenkot leapt ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week in the effort to secure enough support from the rest of the parliament to get the first chance to form Israel\u2019s next governing coalition \u2013 garnering the endorsements of 67 parliamentarians to do so, compared to 46 for Netanyahu.<\/p>\n
But that doesn\u2019t mean the former Israeli army chief of staff will succeed in his quest to become prime minister. Though Yashar won the most seats, 21, of any party not aligned with Netanyahu in last month\u2019s vote, neither the prime minister\u2019s bloc nor the opposition garnered the 61-seat minimum needed to form a governing majority.<\/p>\n
Herzog will tap Eisenkot on Sunday to form a government \u2013 but Eisenkot\u2019s path forward remains far from clear.<\/p>\n
Eisenkot leads a grouping of four Zionist parties that make up Israel\u2019s so-called change bloc, united by their stated goal of replacing Netanyahu. Together, they hold 48 seats in the incoming parliament, or Knesset, which means they need to enlist the support of parties whose seats total at least 13 to reach the magic number of 61 out of 120 Knesset seats. Or, they could gain a plurality if enough other parties abstain from voting in the new coalition. <\/p>\n
Eisenkot has 28 days to negotiate that arrangement once given the opportunity, or mandate, to do so by Herzog, plus a 14-day extension if the president allows it. If Eisenkot fails, another candidate could get a shot at forming a coalition, or another round of elections might loom. Here are the paths the Yashar leader could take, and why each one is fraught.<\/p>\n
An unlikely alliance?<\/strong><\/p>\n The first option, which has gained traction in the days since the election, is to cooperate with the ultra-Orthodox parties. These parties have a longstanding alliance with Netanyahu but have served in governments with leaders in the center and left in the past.<\/p>\n There are several indications that such an arrangement may already be taking shape. For starters, United Torah Judaism, one of the two haredi Orthodox parties in the Knesset, told Herzog that it would not endorse either candidate for prime minister \u2013 seemingly breaking from the alliance with Netanyahu. <\/p>\n During the consultations with Herzog, the party\u2019s leaders made clear that their support would go to whichever bloc was willing to make concessions on Haredi conscription, including abandoning sanctions against those who refuse to enlist.<\/p>\n If United Torah Judaism with its 7 seats shifts its support from Netanyahu\u2019s coalition to the change bloc, Eisenkot could secure a plurality, provided the Arab parties at least abstain.<\/p>\n Another indication that such an arrangement may be in the works came from Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party and a member of the change bloc. For years, Lieberman has been best known in Israeli politics for his fierce opposition to the haredi parties.<\/p>\n In a stunning change of course, Lieberman signaled in a Friday post on X that he was open to cooperating with the haredi parties to replace Netanyahu \u2014 an arrangement that would have been almost unimaginable until recently.<\/p>\n \u201cThe election results require all of us to rethink our approach and recognize that there are no good alternatives or magic solutions before us,\u201d Lieberman wrote. He said politicians would need to \u201cshow flexibility and make compromises,\u201d including on the issue of haredi military conscription. <\/p>\n \u201cOur national responsibility requires us to make difficult decisions and be prepared for painful compromises,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n The other leaders of the change bloc have been considerably more vague, focusing on the need to replace Netanyahu without specifying how they intend to do so.<\/p>\n \u201cIn recent days, I have been advancing a plan with my partners to establish a national emergency government,\u201d Eisenkot wrote on Friday of the four parties that comprise the opposition bloc coming out of the election. <\/p>\n \u201cThe logic behind it is to quickly swear in a government based on the four Zionist parties of change and renewal, with any party or Knesset member who agrees to my four basic principles joining immediately or gradually,\u201d he explained. These principles include recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting the values enshrined in Israel\u2019s Declaration of Independence, mandatory military or civilian service, and recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization.<\/p>\n But in the same post in which he announced his willingness to compromise with the haredi parties, Lieberman also introduced a potential obstacle that could derail the entire effort. The veteran politician ruled out supporting any minority government, raising the number of seats the change bloc needs to secure to 61. That would require the support of both haredi parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, rather than just the former.<\/p>\n That is a considerably greater challenge. Shas is considered more right-wing than United Torah Judaism, and its leader, Aryeh Deri, has maintained an especially close relationship with Netanyahu for years. The party also endorsed Netanyahu for prime minister during the consultations. So far, there has been no indication that Shas intends to abandon him, casting serious doubt on the viability of a change-bloc government backed by the haredi parties.<\/p>\n And that is far from the only obstacle facing such an arrangement. One of the central themes of the change bloc\u2019s election campaign was the need to enlist haredi men in the military and change the state\u2019s longstanding approach to their exemption from service. One of the bloc\u2019s strongest campaign arguments was Netanyahu\u2019s unpopular alliance with the two haredi parties. Every leader in the bloc, without exception, pledged before the election not to sit with them in government.<\/p>\n Forming a government with the haredi parties, likely involving significant compromises on military conscription, would be seen by many change-bloc voters as a stunning betrayal. <\/p>\n The first signs of a revolt have already emerged within the bloc. Dan Illouz, an elected Knesset member from Lieberman\u2019s party, wrote on Friday that \u201cwe cannot give up on a conscription law,\u201d making clear that he would oppose compromises on the issue. <\/p>\n An unprecedented partnership?<\/strong><\/p>\n Another scenario that could theoretically allow Eisenkot to form a government would be to rely on cooperation with another minority, the Arab parties \u2014 an arrangement that has long been controversial in Israeli politics. The 19 seats won by Ra\u2019am and the Joint List, the two Arab parties in the bloc, could provide the additional support needed for a change bloc government.<\/p>\n Eisenkot would need active support from Ra\u2019am, the more moderate of the two Arab parties, which previously joined the coalition that replaced Netanyahu in 2021 and has made integration into Israeli society a central part of its platform, alongside an abstention or support from outside the coalition, i.e. not actively joining the coalition, by the Joint List. The more hard-line Arab party has signaled its willingness to engage in unprecedented cooperation with the change bloc to bring down Netanyahu\u2019s coalition.<\/p>\n But here, too, cooperation is far from straightforward, and the obstacles again come from within the change bloc itself.<\/p>\n In addition to ruling out support for a minority government, including one backed by Ra\u2019am, Lieberman made clear that he would oppose any government relying on the Arab parties. \u201cWe must not establish a government that relies on the abstention of the Joint List and Ra\u2019am,\u201d he emphasized in his Friday post.<\/p>\n Without Lieberman\u2019s support, cooperation between the change bloc and the Arab parties appears unlikely. It would require the active support of both Arab parties, rather than just Ra\u2019am, a prospect likely to create significant difficulties for members of the change bloc who may be reluctant to cooperate with a party that many Jewish Israelis view as hostile to the Jewish state and the Zionist project. Israeli media have reported that some lawmakers in the bloc have already conveyed that they would struggle to sit in a government with the Arab parties.<\/p>\n Here, too, such an arrangement would represent a clear breach of a campaign promise made by every leader in the change bloc. Eisenkot himself said in a late September interview with Channel 12 News that the Arab parties, including Ra\u2019am, did not meet his conditions for joining a government. Among those conditions, he said, was recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization.<\/p>\n A unity government after all?<\/strong><\/p>\n The third possible route to forming a government would be a national unity coalition between Netanyahu and the change bloc, or at least some of its constituent parties.<\/p>\n So far, all the leaders of the change bloc appear to have categorically ruled out such an arrangement after the election.<\/p>\n In his Friday post, Eisenkot said there was an \u201curgent need to replace\u201d Netanyahu\u2019s leadership. Lieberman declared that \u201cthe Netanyahu era must come to an end.\u201d Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, said the bloc had a \u201chistoric responsibility\u201d to send Netanyahu home, while Naftali Bennett, the former prime minister who leads B\u2019Yachad, also emphasized the urgency of replacing the current government.<\/p>\n The underlying assumption is that Netanyahu, who will remain prime minister if neither bloc succeeds in forming a new government and new elections are called, would prefer another election to giving up the office. <\/p>\n That would mean any unity arrangement would likely require Netanyahu to remain prime minister, at least initially, under a rotation agreement. Some have speculated that the change bloc\u2019s overtures to the ultra-Orthodox parties are intended to lower Netanyahu\u2019s bargaining power ahead of potential negotiations over a unity government.<\/p>\n For all the momentum behind Eisenkot\u2019s bid to replace Netanyahu, none of the available paths to a governing majority looks straightforward. Securing the mandate may have been the easy part \u2013 forming a government could prove much harder.<\/p>\n