OP-ED: To win normalization with Israel, Saudis must learn the art of the deal

By JASON SHVILI

(JNS.org) – As a primary condition for joining the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia continues to throw down a massive roadblock—a guaranteed pathway to a Palestinian state. Unfortunately, since the Palestinian economy and political structures are bankrupt, and since both its leadership and populace remain committed to the murder of Jews and destruction of Israel, this demand contradicts both American and Israeli Middle East interests. It’s a clear non-starter.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud of Saudi Arabia pose for a portrait in the White House, Nov. 18, 2025. (Credit: Daniel Torok/White House)

Saudi leaders realize the benefits of normalization with Israel would be immense—billions of dollars in bilateral trade, access to Israel’s booming high-tech sector, increased regional security. Yet they persist in demands that appear both impossible and unreasonable. Why?

Above all, their citizens stridently demand their leaders’ support for the Palestinians. Then, too, the Saudis believe their demand for Palestinian statehood seems a necessary price for Israel to pay in exchange for normalization with them—the Middle East’s Arab heavyweight and custodian of Mecca and Medina, Islam’s two holiest cities.

Likewise, the Saudis have a logical, if totally unrealistic, explanation of how the hapless Palestinians could emerge as a nation from the ashes of Hamas, the devastation of Gaza, and the corruption and dysfunctionality of the Palestinian Authority.

Two major flaws mar the Saudi demands: First, they place the entire burden of launching a risky Palestinian state on Israel, taking no responsibility for Palestinian hostility or competence. Second, the Saudi proposal avoids their leaders’ own need to manage the rabid anti-Israel sentiment of the Saudi “street.”

Finally, unlike Israel and the United States, Saudi Arabia has no direct experience, nor has it paid any price for the behavior of the Palestinians over nearly eight decades. The United Nations, Israel (and Washington) have made numerous offers of land for a Palestinian state, yet for 78 years, the Palestinians have refused all offers in favor of their jihad against Jews.

In short, Saudi Arabia is trying to make a deal in which it could benefit to the tune of billions of trade dollars, plus gain a huge reputational bump in the Middle East and Muslim world, while making a deal-breaking demand for a Palestinian state at no cost to itself.

Why the Saudis’ demand for a Palestinian state is anachronistic: Their plan is stuck in the 20th century, envisioning a state in the entirety of the Gaza Strip, and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), based on pre-1967 borders, with eastern Jerusalem as its capital. But that train left the station years ago after offers of just such a state that the Palestinians rejected. Moreover, the Oct. 7 massacre proves that a Palestinian state on Israel’s border—filled with terrorists determined to slaughter Jews and wipe the Jewish state off the map—would be national suicide.

Why Saudi normalization with Israel is more lucrative than Palestinian statehood: Fathom Journal forecasts the initial value of bilateral trade between Israel and Saudi Arabia to be $2.7 to $2.9 billion annually. Israeli technology and innovation can help Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its economy away from oil exports by adopting Israel’s advancements in renewable energy production. Absurdly, the Saudis overlook these benefits to pursue an inconsequential, unrelated demand for Palestinian sovereignty, despite undeniable Palestinian ineptitude.

Why do the Saudis feel such a pressing need to demand Palestinian statehood? As host of Islam’s holiest sites, Saudi Arabia positions itself as the preeminent defender of Muslim and Palestinian rights, which resonate deeply with the world’s Muslims. Normalizing relations with Israel without addressing Palestinian grievances would be seen as a betrayal, potentially eroding Saudi Arabia’s soft power and religious legitimacy. This was amplified after Oct. 7, 2023, when Israel’s war to destroy Hamas in Gaza caused public outrage across the Arab and Muslim world to surge, making deals with Israel politically toxic.

Saudi plans for Palestinian statehood would require miracles. The Saudis generally align with U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan for the Gaza Strip—disarming Hamas, reforming the P.A. and rebuilding Gaza using massive financial aid from Arab states. However, like Trump, the Saudis don’t indicate how Hamas would be disarmed or how the P.A. would be reformed. In fact, brazenly, the Saudis refuse to contribute troops to an international stabilization force charged with disarming Hamas. They also refuse to fund Gaza reconstruction unless Hamas is disarmed and removed from power. It’s as if Saudi Arabia expects a Palestinian state to miraculously appear, while they pay no price at all.

Saudis must learn the art of a deal acceptable to Jerusalem and Washington. Saudi Arabia hasn’t experienced the Palestinians’ behavior as Israel and the United States have. They never suffered atrocities like those on Oct. 7, nor have their offers of Palestinian statehood been snubbed and repaid with terrorism, as Israel has. Nor have they seen billions of dollars in Palestinian aid squandered, as America has. In short, the Saudis fail to appreciate why a Palestinian state is such an enormous price for Israel and America to pay. If the Saudis truly want statehood for the Palestinians, they need to create a very attractive deal.

How the Saudis can make an offer Israel can’t refuse. To make a Palestinian state palatable to Israelis, the Saudis would have to eliminate Palestinian security threats to Israel—a very tall order since the Palestinians have never abandoned their primary raison d’être—to destroy the Jewish state. The Saudis could help disarm Hamas and other Palestinian terror groups to prevent all further attacks on Israel. They could help the Palestinians reform their education system to remove the steady diet of antisemitism and murderous death-cult ethos fed to Palestinian children. Finally, they could teach Palestinians how to govern effectively and build a sustainable economy, as well as prevent the return of homegrown jihadists on Iran’s and Qatar’s payroll. Simple enough?

As of now, the Saudis are demanding too much and offering too little to win the massive benefits of membership in the Abraham Accords. To succeed, they must master the art of the deal—focusing first on an offer that resolves Israel’s existential security needs—then tackle the task of turning Palestinians into peace-loving neighbors.

Jason Shvili is a contributing editor at Facts and Logic About the Middle East (FLAME), which publishes educational messages to correct lies and misperceptions about Israel and its relationship to the United States.